How Dirty are "Quick and Dirty" Methods of Project Appraisal?
نویسندگان
چکیده
Routine "quick-and-dirty" (QD) methods of project appraisal can be so dirty in guiding project selection as to wipe out the net social gains from public investment. A common QD method for estimating benefits from irrigation investments is tested using data for Viet Nam. The results are compared to impacts assessed through econometric modelling of marginal returns that allows for household and area heterogeneity using integrated household-level survey data. The QD method performs well in estimating average benefits nationally but can be misleading for some regions and, by ignoring heterogeneity, it overestimates how much the poor gain. At moderate to high cost levels, QD makes enough mistakes to eliminate the net benefits from public investment. When irrigating as little as three percent of Viet Nam's non-irrigated land, the savings from the more data-intensive method are sufficient to cover the costs of the extra data required. 1 Dominique van de Walle is with the Development Research Group of the World Bank. Dileni Gunewardena is with the Department of Economics at the University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka. Correspondence to van de Walle, MC2-507, 1818H St., NW, Washington, DC, 20433; (tel) 202-473-7935; (fax) 202-522-1154; (email) [email protected] 1
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